Jiang's Vietnam swansong seen short on substance
HANOI - China's President Jiang Zemin is due in
communist neighbour Vietnam on Wednesday for a
swansong visit expected to be high on symbolism but short
on substance, despite many unresolved disputes and
lingering suspicions.
Diplomats in Hanoi see Jiang's visit, his first since 1994, as
a hastily arranged reciprocation to a visit to Beijing late last
year by Vietnam's Communist Party chief Nong Duc Manh.
With Jiang due to step down as Communist Party chief this year, it was one of his last
opportunities to come, they said.
Given the short time between the two visits, it was unlikely anything concrete would
result, especially in terms of resolving long-running territorial disputes, they said.
However Jiang is expected to do his best to alter perceptions about China, which despite
being one of Hanoi's last remaining ideological allies, is still seen by many Vietnamese as
more of a traditional rival.
Only 23 years ago, the communist neighbours fought a brief but bloody war Beijing
launched to punish Hanoi for ousting the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. Ties were not
normalised until 1991.
A highlight of Jiang's visit will be a speech at Hanoi National University on Thursday,
where he will have the chance to communicate a message of friendship to the young.
In speaking there he will be emulating former U.S. President Bill Clinton, who started the
trend in November 2000, and Russia's Vladimir Putin in March 2001.
Diplomats expect one agreement that could be signed during the visit to be on increased
student exchanges.
"Among the young in China and Vietnam there's a misplaced perception about each
other's role in events in the past and there's a need to correct this," an Asian diplomat
said. "There's still a lingering suspicion that refuses to go away."
On Tuesday, China's official Xinhua news agency stressed the friendship of late
revolutionary leaders Ho Chi Minh and Mao Zedong. It spoke of a shared aim of
"longterm stability, future orientation, friendly neighbourliness, all-round cooperation."
Territorial disputes
But while ideology provides a bond at state level, history has had a dampening effect on
attitudes or ordinary people and unresolved territorial disputes have not helped.
The two countries signed a land border pact in late 1999 and another covering the
Tonkin Gulf a year later, but the former has been criticised by dissidents in Vietnam and
there has been no agreement yet on fishing rights or progress towards resolving
sovereignty claims to the reputedly oil-rich Spratly Islands.
"We don't anticipate any agreement at this point in time," a Southeast Asian diplomat
said.
September 11 and the focus on terrorism meant the Spratlys, long seen as a regional
flashpoint, were now on the backburner, and more work was needed on fishing,
diplomats said.
Vietnam would like similar tariff breaks to those Beijing has offered Myanmar, Laos and
Cambodia to soften the impact of China's World Trade Organisation accession, but
these also were unlikely to materialise given that China saw Vietnam as a potential
regional trading rival, another Asian diplomat said.
The official Vietnam News Agency said last week Jiang's visit would help expand
cooperation in "national defence, public security, theoretical research and commercial
development".
Analysts said Hanoi would be at pains to allay Chinese concerns about a U.S. proposal
for an "open port" arrangement to allow ships from all nations to visit the strategic naval
base of Cam Ranh Bay, once the Russian navy pulls out this year.
Vietnam has repeatedly stressed it will not sign an agreement with any other country to
allow use of the base for military purposes after Moscow's withdrawal.
By David Brunnstrom - Reuters - February 27, 2002.
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