Friend or Foe? Hanoi has embarked on a controversial policy of closer ties with its oldest enemy--China HANOI - Twenty one years ago, thousands of Chinese soldiers poured into Vietnam to teach it a lesson for its Christmas 1978 invasion of Cambodia. This week, 16 of Vietnam's senior-most officials, including politburo member Nguyen Duc Binh--Vietnam's chief ideologue--assembled in China for an unpublicized lesson of a very different kind--how to reform a socialist economy without losing party control. The development is an extraordinary one. Despite ideological similarities and geographic proximity, the two countries, which normalized ties less than a decade ago, remain wary of each other. But the priorities of Vietnam's Communist Party have changed under the influence of its conservative leader, Lt.-Gen. Le Kha Phieu. With the economy in the doldrums and the party obsessed with ensuring control, Hanoi is seeking refuge in closer ties with its oldest enemy. "If China succeeds in its reform, then we'll succeed," he recently told a Chinese delegation. "If China fails, we'll fail." The meeting comes at a critical juncture for Hanoi. A Communist Party congress--the highlight of the country's glacial political processes--is due next year and senior Vietnamese sources say this week's meeting is part of the preparations for that event. Hosted by Chinese politburo member Li Tingyie, the Vietnamese delegates assembled on June 13 for a two-day "theoretical seminar," after which they were due to travel to southwest China for a field session on economic reform. As the meeting started, Beijing announced it was giving Vietnam $55 million to upgrade two Chinese-built steel and fertilizer plants. The meeting is one of many signs of rapprochement. Numerous exchanges have taken place since Le Kha Phieu became Vietnam's party chief in late 1997. In 1998, there were 148 formal exchanges, with 52 at vice-ministerial level or above. Last year, the number of high-level visits jumped to 80, with Phieu himself visiting China. Vietnamese officials confirm that he did so again this year for an unpublicized meeting with President Jiang Zemin. Diplomatic sources say Phieu went to reassure China about a planned visit to Hanoi by U.S. Defence Secretary William Cohen. Diplomats in Hanoi say one of the consequences of the closer ties has been Vietnam's failure to sign a trade accord with the United States. While substantial opposition to the deal exists in Vietnam--primarily among vested-interest groups and political conservatives--party insiders say it was Beijing's advice to Hanoi last year to delay signing that ultimately derailed the accord. Vietnamese party leaders thought it was wise to defer until China had signed its own trade deal with Washington. (China did so in November 1999 and is now on course for entry to the World Trade Organization.) But why the growing warmth? "Remember, after defeating the Chinese, we always sent tribute," says a Vietnamese official implying that Hanoi's recent kowtowing is only a tactical move after a period of strife between the two countries. Han Feng, a Chinese scholar specializing in Southeast Asia, maintains there are common grounds for China and Vietnam in ideology. Vietnam, he adds, is also facing pressure for political openness and also wants to maintain subregional influence over Laos and Cambodia. But some in Vietnam doubt the wisdom behind this. Tran Bach Dang, a veteran communist leader in Ho Chi Minh City, states bluntly that China is waging economic war against Vietnam by flooding its market with cheap goods. Talking about Vietnam's territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, he says: "China is a threat not only to Vietnam but to the world. China has attacked all its neighbours--India, Vietnam and Russia." Historian David Marr, of Australian National University, believes Vietnam has simply reverted to one of its historic roles, in which it is the pupil and China the teacher. "Vietnamese have tried to counterbalance France against China, then they tried to balance the U.S. against China," he says. "But all that has had a limited shelf life." By Nayan Chanda - Far Eastern Economic Review - June 15, 2000.