Cam Ranh bay manoeuvres
Russia, the United States and China jockey for
position with Vietnam as it decides the future of its
naval and air base on the South China Sea
HANOI - In the spring of 1979, a Soviet navy fleet sailed
into Cam Ranh Bay to establish what became
Moscow's largest naval base and staging area outside
the Soviet Union. With Moscow's lease since 1978 due
to expire in 2004, the future of Cam Ranh Bay is now
being debated. And its fate may reflect much more than
just what happens to one of the finest deep-water
shelters in Southeast Asia.
Hanoi has a crucial decision to make: to keep its best
port and the adjoining air base as a military centre or to
develop it as a commercial venture for foreign vessels,
including even American warships. The choice will be a
clear signal of whether communist-run Vietnam will
stick to a largely state-dominated economy and a wary
foreign policy closely allied to China, or shift to a more
open-door economic policy and broader relations with
the West.
Cam Ranh Bay first came to international prominence in
1905 when a Tsarist fleet stopped there on a
seven-month voyage en route to defeat by Japan at the
Battle of Tsushima. That battle ended the
Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, forcing Russia to
abandon its Far East expansionism. Half a century later,
the United States transformed Cam Ranh Bay into a
major naval and air base for the Vietnam War. At the
height of the conflict in 1969, Lyndon Johnson
inspected it as the first U.S. president to visit Vietnam.
In 1972 the Americans handed it over to their South
Vietnamese allies. Three years later North Vietnamese
forces captured it.
Conflict between Vietnam and its oldest enemy, China,
plus Hanoi's need for big-power protection, allowed
the Russians to return in 1978. They built an electronic
listening post and based warships, long-range bombers
and fighters at Cam Ranh Bay, turning it into Moscow's
beachhead in Southeast Asia. The break-up of the
Soviet Union in the early 1990s however brought hard
times. The Vietnamese have since taken over control of
much of the port area as the zone used by the Russians
has shrunk. Other than occasional calls by Russian navy
vessels, only some 30 Russians maintain the signals
intelligence station, periodically tracking ships in the
South China Sea.
With renewed expressions of Russian, Chinese and
American interest, Vietnamese officials say Cam Ranh
Bay has been the subject of lengthy discussion in recent
months. The lease is high on the agenda for Russian
President Vladimir Putin's visit to Vietnam early in
2001, probably in March. The U.S. has shown interest
in a ship visit and is expected to renew that proposal
when Adm. Dennis Blair, commander-in-chief of U.S.
forces in the Pacific, visits Vietnam in early January.
A suitcase with a broken handle
Analysts say that Putin is keen to retain Russia's hold on
the bay despite his country's economic problems.
Alexander Belkin, a senior executive at the Council on
Foreign and Defence Policy, a think-tank in Moscow,
likens Russia's relationship with Cam Ranh Bay to
travelling with a suitcase with a broken handle: "It's hard
to carry but difficult to abandon."
Belkin, a former Soviet armed forces officer, foresees
some future military value for the base but says
maintenance costs are high. The intelligence station
could be used for training but any information it gathers
wouldn't be of much use, he says, because it will be
years before the Russian navy returns in force to the
region.
Putin however is eager to please the military, so he
wants to keep Cam Ranh Bay. Vietnamese officials say
that Moscow's desire to hang on to the base helps
account for its willingness to resolve its debt dispute
with Vietnam in September. The problem had
bedevilled ties for almost a decade. As part of the
agreement, a senior Vietnamese official says, Moscow
wrote off up to 85% of the debt. Russia had initially
claimed $11 billion based on Soviet-era valuations.
But continued Russian control of the base faces some
opposition in Vietnam. A senior Vietnamese Foreign
Ministry official says Moscow pays virtually nothing to
use the port for merchant-ship repairs and that the
large, deep and strategically situated harbour is an
important asset that Vietnam as a poor country cannot
afford to let sit idle. Yet it's unlikely that anyone else will
be allowed to operate in Cam Ranh Bay before 2004,
the official says. Vietnam's conservative old-guard
leaders are particularly sentimental about past Russian
support and don't want to offend its principal arms
supplier.
The official notes that the Chinese have inquired about
the state of Cam Ranh Bay and expressed interest in
developing it. Carlyle Thayer of Honolulu's Asia-Pacific
Centre for Security Studies says that some companies
owned by the People's Liberation Army may like to get
involved but don't have much chance of success.
Still, in a surprising development that reflects the extent
of normalization between Beijing and Hanoi, a Chinese
naval delegation paid a friendship visit to Vietnam's
Military Regions Five and Seven in November. It was
the first such Chinese trip to the particularly sensitive
Region Seven, which includes Cam Ranh Bay and the
disputed Spratly Islands. Neither were apparently on
the Chinese itinerary.
Cautious Hanoi
To the interest of analysts, Vietnam's media reported
the visit but no mention of it was made in China's
state-controlled press. A Vietnamese official says that
Hanoi may first ask Chinese ships to visit Cam Ranh
Bay before extending an invitation to Washington. That
intention, a former U.S. official says, may help explain
China's public silence about the November
mission--Beijing doesn't want to go ahead with its own
ship visit to Cam Ranh Bay if it believes that Hanoi only
wants it to pave the way for a U.S. port call. Having
allowed the Chinese navy in, Vietnam could argue that
it was only being even-handed. But "the Chinese are
too smart to be played by the Vietnamese," says Kurt
Campbell, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of
defence who has dealt with Vietnam since 1995.
On possible U.S. involvement in Cam Ranh Bay, U.S.
ambassador to Vietnam Pete Peterson says flatly: "We
have no aspirations to use that facility." He adds it is
more likely that Vietnam will use it for business rather
than military purposes. In Honolulu, a senior official at
the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Command says:
"We are not pressing for a ship visit. There is no
urgency."
But other knowledgeable Americans confirm that there
is U.S. interest in their ships calling at the port. Senator
John Kerry, a Vietnam War veteran and key player in
improving U.S. relations with Vietnam, says: "Having
access to Cam Ranh Bay is not critical but it's a
convenience for us to be able to drop anchor on the
way from Japan to the Middle East rather than go to
Guam."He adds that the Vietnamese envisage opening
Cam Ranh Bay to cruise ships, but access for U.S.
navy vessels will be difficult in view of Hanoi's deep
suspicion of American intentions. One example of such
distrust: U.S. teams working to recover the remains of
American servicemen in Vietnam are barred from using
U.S. military communications. They have to rent
satellite telephones from Hanoi.
The caution of Vietnam's top leaders isn't matched by
some impatient younger officials, who see valuable real
estate being wasted. Some planners believe it is foolish
to leave the port and runway virtually unused while the
country needs to boost tourism and exports. A Western
diplomat says a senior official of Khanh Hoa province,
which includes Cam Ranh Bay, complained to him that
while the base airstrip was empty, large numbers of
tourists couldn't reach the fabled white-sand beaches of
nearby Nha Trang because the provincial airport can
only handle small planes.
Kerry says the U.S. and Vietnam have quietly
discussed the possibility of a U.S. port call but "the
issue is China"--referring to Hanoi's anxiety about
annoying Beijing. China invaded Vietnam in 1979 to
teach it a lesson for its 1978 invasion of Cambodia. In
addition, the conservative leaders of Hanoi want to
avoid any entanglement with the United States. But at
the same time they want the U.S. to be active in the
region as a stabilizing power. Campbell, the former
defence official, says that in quiet meetings in Hanoi,
Vietnamese officials often impress on him how
important it is that the U.S. stays engaged in the region.
A senior Vietnamese official says he is frustrated that
Vietnam doesn't benefit more from Cam Ranh Bay
because of fears about China's reaction. "The more
afraid you are of the ghost, the less often you will go out
of your home," he says. Some years ago the Americans
told the Vietnamese that they were interested in
developing Cam Ranh Bay as an economic zone.
American companies made some cost estimates but the
idea failed to take off, according to U.S. officials.
"What they primarily want is economic engagement and
remodelling of the facility," says Campbell, adding that
the Vietnamese believe one way to achieve this would
be through a relationship with the deep-pocketed U.S.
military. "At the same time they very much do not want
to trigger the anxiety of our friends in Beijing," he notes.
So Hanoi makes it clear that Cam Ranh Bay should be
open not only to U.S. ships but also to visits by vessels
from other countries, including China. "But China has
been, at least to date, very careful about the subtle offer
by our friends," Campbell adds.
In terms of public diplomacy, Campbell says, "the
Vietnamese are absolutely clear that they want no part
of big-power rivalry and they don't want to be seen as
an American outpost. China has also made clear to
Vietnam privately that it has to handle its relationship
with the U.S. carefully."
Campbell points to a political shift in Vietnam that
explains a slowing of relations with the U.S. since the
two countries resumed diplomatic ties in 1995. "What
you see is the coming to power of very conservative
officials who are both careful about the path and pace
of economic reform and cautious about engagement
with the U.S. for a variety of reasons," he says.
President Bill Clinton met some of those officials in
November on his visit to Vietnam which, according to
Communist Party officials, ran smack into a
long-standing rift within the party over the pace of
reform and relations with China and the United States.
According to a U.S. official familiar with Clinton's talks
with Party Secretary-General Le Kha Phieu, the
president said the U.S. sought Vietnam's friendship for
its own sake and not to form an alliance against China.
The Americans hoped this direct statement might help
allay suspicions.
Whether or not Hanoi was reassured, the Communist
Party of Vietnam is to decide on broad policy
guidelines for the next five years at a pivotal congress
scheduled for March. Its outcome may determine what
next happens in the now quiet waters of Cam Ranh
Bay.
By Nayan Chanda - Far Eastern Economic Review - December 21, 2000.
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