Clinton's tricky Vietnam mission
Twenty-five years after the end of the Vietnam War,
a U.S. president faces a hard balancing act in
appeasing the old guard and seeking a new start
HANOI - Over 30 years ago, Vietnam's late leader Ho
Chi Minh said the Vietnamese people would "spread
red carpets and flowers" to encourage U.S. forces to
leave. After the war ended, however, they "would not
hesitate to cooperate with the American people"
because of their advanced technology.
But when Bill Clinton arrives in Hanoi on November 16
and becomes the first U.S. president to visit a reunited
Vietnam, stiff handshakes rather than warm embraces
are expected--because of lingering suspicions among
Hanoi's old guard over U.S. motives. Clinton has to
placate the old guard during his four-day trip as well as
reach out to Vietnam's vibrant post-war generation and
seek a new start.
For behind the official welcome, forces are already at
work to narrow the gap between a prosperous,
capitalist America and a communist-run Vietnam
looking to survive in a world where free enterprise
reigns. Despite a lack of official ardour, a market
economy is gradually developing and opening Vietnam
up to the world. In addition, its national interests and
changes to the security map of Asia might in the long
term bring it closer strategically to the United States.
In the waning days of his presidency, Clinton has clear
aims in Vietnam. Before leaving Washington, he told the
nation: "I will stress the remarkable progress we have
made with Vietnam in accounting for Americans who
did not come home from the war, and I will seek to
open a new chapter in our relationship with the people
of Vietnam, encouraging their efforts to open their
nation to the world."
A Vietnamese official was blunter, reflecting perhaps
how Vietnam's old guard leaders will scrutinize the U.S.
president's carefully scripted words and gestures for
any slight: "Clinton's task in this historic visit is to make
a good impression."
But the hopes of many of Vietnam's post-war
generation, who make up half the country's 76 million
people, will be riding on Clinton's warmth, charisma
and public gestures of reconciliation to help wash away
the negative images that haunt both sides.
Le Phuc Nguyen, deputy editor of the army daily Quan
Doi Nhan Dan in Hanoi, says the trip will be "a
milestone in the normalization of the two countries."
Fred Brown, a Vietnam scholar at the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies in
Washington, notes: "The president's visit will be an
implicit 'laying-on of hands' by the United States, if not
an endorsement of the status quo."
The appearance of Clinton, who as a student opposed
the Vietnam War and avoided the draft, at a crash site
for some of the nearly 1,500 U.S. servicemen listed as
missing in action in Vietnam will highlight the deep
emotions that underlie his trip. He can point to his
success in starting to resolve this painful legacy and
thank the Vietnamese for their help. Progress on MIAs
has enabled the U.S. to move economic cooperation
and trade with Vietnam to the centre of their relations.
Clinton is expected to prepare the ground for new
trade, education, science and technology exchanges.
U.S. seeks changes
But beyond that, the U.S. doesn't make any bones
about its desire to use trade to push Vietnam toward
greater openness and democracy. Clinton's National
Security Adviser Sandy Berger told reporters: "We
want the Vietnamese people to see that America
supports their economic development, while
encouraging those in Vietnam who have been willing to
risk opening the country, both economically and
politically."
Berger said Vietnam would decide internally whether to
maintain "a command-and-control system and shut out
the world, or build prosperity by loosening controls and
joining the world." But he said that Clinton "can and will
encourage it to continue its reforms, strengthen its
respect for human rights and for religious freedom."
Virginia Foote of the U.S.-Vietnam Trade Council
believes there is a renewed sense that Vietnam is
serious about economic reform, based on the signing of
a landmark trade agreement between Washington and
Hanoi in July. It's expected to go into force next year.
Foote will accompany some 60 U.S. business
executives to check out Vietnam's prospects during the
president's visits to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City,
formerly Saigon. Clinton lifted a punishing trade
embargo on Vietnam in 1994 and established
diplomatic relations in 1995. But little substantial change
has followed since a series of free market reforms
stalled in the late 1990s.
Another major aim for Clinton is to be heard by
Vietnam's young people in the hope that reaching out to
them will help promote the idea of change. Clinton's
speech at Hanoi National University will be broadcast
live by television in Vietnam, the first time that the
communist leadership has allowed a visiting leader to
address the nation.
A senior Vietnam official says Hanoi understands that
Clinton will address the question of human rights--as
Washington says it will. But he adds that the motivation
will only be for U.S. domestic reasons, warning: "It will
be foolish if he is seen as lecturing the Vietnamese
about human rights right in Hanoi where populated
areas were bombed by B-52s only 28 years ago." He
says that Clinton's warmth could help silence those
among the Vietnamese who still feel much bitterness
toward the United States.
It won't be easy. A Vietnamese source says
Washington proposed that the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff
accompany the president and meet their counterparts in
Vietnam, including retired war hero, Gen. Vo Nguyen
Giap. Clinton would drop in on the encounter. But
Hanoi refused, saying that such drama was unsuitable
for Vietnamese culture. A request for Clinton to
address the National Assembly also was turned down.
But in the run-up to the visit, the state softened its
hostile rhetoric against what ideologues hold is a
Western scheme to topple socialism through "peaceful
evolution." Asked about the change, Dao Duy Quat,
deputy head of the Commission for Ideological and
Cultural Affairs of the Communist Party Central
Committee, says confidently: "Hostile forces want to
change Vietnam to capitalism. But we are not worried
that this might happen."
Meanwhile Hanoi and many Vietnamese seek
compensation from Clinton for their suffering in the war
. "The United States has a
spiritual and moral responsibility, and thus should
contribute to the settlement of war consequences," says
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Phan Thuy Thanh.
On the outskirts of Hanoi, Col. Nguyen Khai Hung, the
director of the Friendship Village, where victims of the
Agent Orange defoliant are treated, gestures to
photographs of deformed children. "If he wants to see
the truth he should come to our village."
But U.S. officials are clear that no economic aid will be
forthcoming during the trip. Even Vietnamese officials
don't expect Clinton to apologize for the war.
Washington has over the past few years given
humanitarian and other aid but in various guises--from
researching the effect of chemical agents to destroying
mines. U.S.-Vietnamese cooperation on MIAs and
mine-clearing has allowed the military on both sides to
work together. "That's been the big benefit of the MIA
cooperation," says Brown of Johns Hopkins. "They
started getting used to each other."
The question of U.S. military cooperation with Vietnam
beyond the current steps has repercussions for
Vietnam's giant neighbour and historic enemy, China,
with whom Hanoi is currently seeking to strengthen its
ties. Some Vietnamese argue the United States could
be Vietnam's best friend in dealing with a resurgent
China.
Strengthening ties
Vietnam's older leaders however are concerned about
antagonizing Beijing while exposing their country to
U.S. capitalism. "Heaven is very far but China is very
close," says Nguyen Thiet Son, the director of the
Centre for North American Studies in Hanoi.
Vietnam's leadership reflects this ambivalence. To
reassure Beijing that Vietnam will remain loyal to its
socialist friends, a stream of statements about
cooperation with China were issued and meetings were
held betwen Chinese and Vietnamese officials before
Clinton's trip. A U.S. official involved in dealing with
Vietnam compares Hanoi's behaviour to an awkward
dance by a longtime spinster, who wants to give no sign
of favouritism while at the same time keeping the
attention of numerous suitors. The result, he fears, is
that her behaviour guarantees all her suitors will grow
indifferent.
Both sides say the visit has nothing to do with China
and has no global strategic significance. But privately
U.S. and Vietnamese officials see it strengthening
Vietnam's position. Brown says cultivating a "strategic
relationship with Vietnam at a moderate pace" is now a
goal as important as improved economic relations.
The Vietnamese however know they will be meeting the
man who leaves the White House in January, and that
the chances of more progress largely rest with his
successor.
By Nayan Chanda - Far Eastern Economic Review - November 16, 2000.
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